Dr. Florent Parmentier, Secretary General, Center of political researches of Sciences Po (CEVIPOF) (France)
The question is twofold: what would be a military victory of Ukraine, and what would be a political victory of Ukraine?
On the military side, it depends on what are the key objectives: going to the ante-24th February situation? Regaining the Donbas? Taking back control over Crimea? While regaining the Donbas is a credible goal today, taking back the Crimean Peninsula would probably mean escalating to a new level, where nuclear deterrence would not work.
A political victory would mean bringing Ukraine to Europe under specific conditions (economic reconstruction, bringing back the refugees, risks of trafficking of weapons, etc.). President Macron’s proposal of the ‘European political community’ helps to bridge the gap between the impossibility of a quick enlargement (as seen in Central Europe and the Balkans today) and the necessity of immediate action (the political and differentiated integration of Ukraine, but also Moldova, Georgia, and the Balkans States). While economic integration would take time, this initiative would send a clear message of political support to Ukraine.
This text, with opinions of other experts, has originally been published here.
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